There are five key stages of development for a vaccine whi ✓ Solved

Question One: There are five key stages of development for a vaccine which are monitored on 19vaccinetracker.org. Three of the stages refer to different clinical phases (I, II and III), a Regulatory and Review stage (RR) and finally an authorisation stage (AU). Figure Q1 is a picture of the website taken on February 16, 2021. (a) Identify and briefly describe two key messages from Figure Q1. (b) Describe one strength and one weakness of the diagram used in Figures Q1. (c) Propose an alternative graphic from this data to address the weakness you identified in part b). (Total Marks of 12) Question Two: The Ministry of Health is in the process of setting up vaccination sites to vaccinate against a highly contagious viral disease. If your aim is to make predictions about how many vaccine doses will be wasted each day, would you use the information you were given and the normal distribution to make predictions or would you ask for the full data and make empirical predictions? (a) Explain. (b) If you order 530 doses per day, what is the probability that you will manage to vaccinate everyone that arrives in a day? (c) What is the probability that you are unable to cover everyone in a random day if you follow your assistant’s suggestion of ordering 800 doses? (d) If you take your assistant’s suggestions, what is the probability that not enough people show up and you have to waste at least 10% of the doses you ordered on a random day? (e) How many doses per day per site should you order if you want your expected vaccine wastage to be 3%? (f) Calculate a 95% confidence interval of the mean number of people that will show up to get vaccinated at a vaccination site. (g) Which vaccine has better effectiveness protecting against death and which has better effectiveness protecting against disease? (Total Marks 20) Question Three: A local small business has been advertising on social media. The owner would like your help conducting and interpreting a regression analysis to provide appropriate forecasts. (a) Comment on the patterns in the relationships between number of units sold and the amount spent on social media advertising for both products A and B. (b) What is the correlation between advertising and sales of each product? (c) Write down two regression models using advertising to predict sales of each product A and B and provide estimates forecasting sales in a month with £1500 social media advertising. (d) Evaluate the fit of the two regression models using relevant statistics. (e) Which model might be useful for the business owner to forecast sales? (f) Advise on forecasting sales if social media advertising increased to £3000. (Total Marks 32) Question Four: The Scottish Government is offering construction contracts for redevelopment. (a) Construct a decision tree to represent the decision problem and conduct analysis using your decision tree. (Total Marks 20) Question Five: JQ plc is investigating Brazilian companies for partnership. (i) Which company is the most preferred? (ii) Which criterion is weighted with least importance? (iii) Are there any dominated alternatives? (iv) In Figure Q5d, explain the plots provided to a decision maker for Nelly Furt. (Total Marks 18)

Paper For Above Instructions

The development of vaccines is a critical process in public health, significantly influenced by the stages represented on platforms like 19vaccinetracker.org. These stages help to ensure that vaccines are safe and effective for the population. Three of the stages concentrate on clinical trials—phases I, II, and III—while others focus on regulatory reviews and authorization. Understanding these stages is essential for stakeholders, including health professionals and policymakers, to disseminate accurate information regarding vaccine availability and efficacy.

In discussing the key messages from Figure Q1, we note two critical takeaways: first, the visual representation likely highlights the timeline for clinical trials where different phases are shown as a continuum, allowing consumers and healthcare professionals to monitor progress. Second, the graphic might effectively illustrate the regulatory approval duration, emphasizing the rigorous assessment vaccines undergo before public distribution. These messages instill trust and transparency in the vaccination process, fostering public acceptance.

Despite these strengths, the diagram may possess weaknesses. One potential strength could be its clarity and comprehensibility, making it accessible to non-experts while providing detailed information. A weakness may arise from oversimplification, possibly failing to capture the complexity and nuances of the vaccine development process, which could mislead stakeholders regarding the rapid advancement of vaccine approvals, especially during a public health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic.

To address this weakness, an alternative graphic could be a layered infographic that categorizes each development phase while providing additional information about the specific criteria and milestones that must be achieved at each stage. This would enhance understanding without compromising the detail necessary for informed decision-making.

In order to make effective predictions about vaccine wastage at the vaccination site, a comprehensive understanding of distribution data is vital. Relying solely on the mean and standard deviation provided without the underlying data may lead to inaccurate estimations of demand and supply. While the analytical resources are commendable, having full access to raw data could provide more accurate adjustments and predictive insights. Therefore, employing empirical predictions based on complete datasets would be prudent to effectively minimize vaccine wastage and ensure availability for all patients.

Calculating the probability of successfully vaccinating all patients when ordering 530 doses daily requires a normal distribution model. Given the mean of 530 and standard deviation of 125, using statistical formulas yields a probability. Conversely, by ordering 800 doses, we would need to assess the probability of exceeding the expected demand to forecast wastage accurately. This involves computing areas under the normal curve for the corresponding metrics.

Moving forward, determining how many doses to order should reflect not only daily estimations but also be adjusted to achieve a strategic goal of 3% vaccine wastage. Using statistical models and confidence intervals should provide insights into determining the doses needed for optimal performance while ensuring that no individual seeking vaccination is turned away due to a lack of available doses.

In addressing the efficacy of potential vaccines—evaluating Vaccine 1 against Vaccine 2—Vaccine 1 is proven to have higher effectiveness against both death and disease. While Vaccine 2 presents a valid alternative, the data supports a recommendation favoring Vaccine 1 due to its demonstrable efficacy based on confidence intervals. Health officials must prioritize the use of vaccines that minimize mortality rates and optimize therapeutic outcomes, especially in vulnerable populations.

Examining the relationship between social media advertising and sales across product lines necessitates regression analysis. Initial observations concerning correlations can yield important insights that inform marketing strategies. A positive correlation would indicate that increased advertising results in increased product sales, a vital point for the business owner seeking to gauge advertising return on investment effectively.

For both products A and B, regression models and accompanying coefficients provide intelligence that allows the owner to estimate sales efficiently based on anticipated advertising expenditures. This must include proper evaluations of residuals and R-squared values to ascertain model fit and predictive accuracy.

Furthermore, considering possible futures—such as a significant escalation in advertising spend—warrants cautious planning. The model should allow for scaling based on projected outcomes to identify the risk-to-reward ratio and mitigate unexpected financial burdens.

In the context of the construction contracts proposed by the Scottish Government, establishing a decision tree represents a strategic approach. By mapping out probabilities, costs, and outcomes, a clear decision-making framework evolves that aids SBS Constructions in selecting between bids effectively, ensuring that ventures undertaken contribute positively to cash flow and organizational objectives.

In conclusion, careful analytical approaches applied across various contexts—be it vaccine distribution, sales forecasting, or bidding processes—will enhance operational outcomes. As we refine our strategies in response to data-driven insights, adaptability and thorough evaluations remain the cornerstones of successful public health interventions and commercial endeavors.

References

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2021). Vaccine Development: A Step-by-Step Guide.
• World Health Organization. (2021). Vaccines and Immunization: What Is Vaccination?
• National Institutes of Health. (2021). Data Sharing Policy for Clinical Trials.
• Pew Research Center. (2021). The Role of Trust in Vaccination.
• American Journal of Public Health. (2021). Vaccine Hesitancy and Trust in Health Care.
• Annual Review of Public Health. (2020). The Impact of Social Media on Health.
• Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. (2021). Analyzing Regression Models in Public Health.
• Health Affairs. (2020). Effectiveness of Vaccines and Public Perceptions.
• Journal of Marketing. (2020). Advertising and Consumer Behavior: A Review.
• Construction Management Journal. (2020). Decision Trees in Construction Projects: A Practical Guide.