CLIMATE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: DIFFERENT SCENARIOS RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 Change in avera
ID: 119117 • Letter: C
Question
CLIMATE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: DIFFERENT SCENARIOS RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 Change in average surface temperature (1988-2005 to 2081-2100) 30 Cc) 2 -1.5-1 -05 0 05 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 79 11 Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) 39 32 -50 40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 4050 Fig. 33.1 Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081-100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change and (b) average per cent change in annual mean precipitation. Changes are shown relative to 1986-2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to natural internal variability (i.e. less than one standard deviation of natural internal variability in 20year means). Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean is large compared to natural internal variability (i.e. greater than two standard deviations of natural internal variability in 20 year means). Source: IPCC 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure SPM 8. Cambridge University Press
Explanation / Answer
Future climate projection from the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project5 (CMIP5), the inter comparison project launched by the international climate research community in 2010. The CMIP5 projections of climate change are driven by concentration or emission scenarios consistent with the RCPs, Representative Concentration Pathways described in.
The IPCC Expert Meeting recognized a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario “Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)” and traditional frameworks and expansion schedules for the Climate Modelling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), and Impact version susceptibility (IAV) communities for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports in which researchers and users participated.
three scientifically interesting aspects of the projected change are as described below
1)
Significant warming is projected for the 21st century as a result of greenhouse gases emitted from human activities. The amount of warming that occurs from about midcentury onward depends on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in the coming decades. Ordinary unpredictability is likely to remain an significant feature of global and regional type of weather, at times amplify and at other times counteracting the long-term trends caused by rising greenhouse gas emission.
2)
The most recent projections for 21st century climate change (IPCC 2013)[1] align with and confirm earlier projections (e.g., IPCC 2007), although new estimates indicate faster rates of sea level rise during this century and in the centuries to come. Close agreement in many areas. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snow cover, and ocean acidification closely match the projections from 2007. Differences in warming projections are largely a result of differences between among greenhouse gas scenarios.
3)
The USA is also proposed to knowledge warming, modest change in rainfall, and continued sea level rise. Impacts on human and natural systems. Projected changes in U.S. climate are usual to: increase damage to transportation as a result of higher storm surge, increased flooding, and extreme heat events; amplify the likelihood of water shortages and antagonism for water among agricultural, municipal, and ecological uses.