Consider the following time series data. Using the naïve method (most recent val
ID: 2399019 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data.
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
________
Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
_______
Mean absolute percentage error. Round your answer to two decimal places.
_______
What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
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Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 12 15 11 19 15Explanation / Answer
Week Value [Time] Forecast Error Absolute Error Square Error % error Absolute % error 1 20 [Error/Time] 2 12 20 12-20 = -8 8 64 -67% 67% 3 15 12 15-12 = 3 3 9 20% 20% 4 11 15 11-15 = -4 4 16 -36% 36% 5 19 11 19-11 = 8 8 64 42% 42% 6 15 19 15-19 = -4 4 16 -27% 27% TOTAL 27 169 -68% 192% 0 Mean absolute error = Absolute Error/n = 27/5 5.4 Mean Square Error= Square Absolute Error /n = 169/5 33.8 Mean absolute % error = Absolute % error /n = 192%/5 38.40% What is the forecast for week 7 = Actual value for week 6 = 14