Consider the following time series data. Using the naïve method (most recent val
ID: 2946099 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data.
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Round your answers to two decimal places.
MAE =
MSE =
MAPE =
Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places.
MAE =
MSE =
MAPE =
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 15 11 17 15Explanation / Answer
using naive method
MAE =sum(|y-y^|)/n=22/5=4.4
MSE =sum(|y-y^|)2/n=114/5=22.8
MAPE =(100*|y-y^|/y)n=163.32/5=32.66
(second part) using average method
MAE =1.83
MSE =5.49
MAPE =14.69
week value (y) naïve (y^) E=y-y^ |E| E2 100*|E|/y 1 19 2 12 19 -7 7 49 58.33333 3 15 12 3 3 9 20 4 11 15 -4 4 16 36.36364 5 17 11 6 6 36 35.29412 6 15 17 -2 2 4 13.33333 MEAN= 14.83 14.80 -0.80 4.40 22.80 32.66