Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 16 11 18 1
ID: 3209363 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
16
11
18
13
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
(a)
Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)
Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.
(d)
What is the forecast for week 7?
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
16
11
18
13
Explanation / Answer
as naive method provide most recent value should be forecast of next month.
hence
a) from above Mean absolute error =5.4
b)Mean squared error =30.2
c)Mean absolute percentage error=0.3956*100=39.56%
d)forecast for 7th weeek =13
c)
Week Value(A) forecast(F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 |A-F|/A 1 18 2 12 18 6 36 0.50 3 16 12 4 16 0.25 4 11 16 5 25 0.45 5 18 11 7 49 0.39 6 13 18 5 25 0.38 13 Total 27 151 1.978 mean =T/5 5.4 30.2 0.3956