Please explain and show all work. Visual approach Using a quick and dirty visual
ID: 2612449 • Letter: P
Question
Please explain and show all work.
Visual approach
Using a quick and dirty visual approach estimate the sales in October, November, and December of 2015, and January 2016
Estimate the range for the forecasted sales values
Month
Sales
Month
Sales
Month
Sales
Oct-12
0.44
Oct-13
29.83
Oct-14
34.98
Nov-12
5.34
Nov-13
18.86
Nov-14
45.54
Dec-12
(1.03)
Dec-13
19.53
Dec-14
49.92
Jan-13
4.22
Jan-14
20.01
Jan-15
48.87
Feb-13
15.44
Feb-14
34.02
Feb-15
58.15
Mar-13
1.39
Mar-14
32.11
Mar-15
51.01
Apr-13
8.28
Apr-14
28.38
Apr-15
58.33
May-13
13.08
May-14
32.16
May-15
58.84
Jun-13
7.25
Jun-14
42.91
Jun-15
49.97
Jul-13
9.20
Jul-14
34.38
Jul-15
58.95
Aug-13
26.30
Aug-14
40.54
Aug-15
49.61
Sep-13
21.78
Sep-14
30.43
Sep-15
56.40
Month
Sales
Month
Sales
Month
Sales
Oct-12
0.44
Oct-13
29.83
Oct-14
34.98
Nov-12
5.34
Nov-13
18.86
Nov-14
45.54
Dec-12
(1.03)
Dec-13
19.53
Dec-14
49.92
Jan-13
4.22
Jan-14
20.01
Jan-15
48.87
Feb-13
15.44
Feb-14
34.02
Feb-15
58.15
Mar-13
1.39
Mar-14
32.11
Mar-15
51.01
Apr-13
8.28
Apr-14
28.38
Apr-15
58.33
May-13
13.08
May-14
32.16
May-15
58.84
Jun-13
7.25
Jun-14
42.91
Jun-15
49.97
Jul-13
9.20
Jul-14
34.38
Jul-15
58.95
Aug-13
26.30
Aug-14
40.54
Aug-15
49.61
Sep-13
21.78
Sep-14
30.43
Sep-15
56.40
Explanation / Answer
Sales is on an increasing trend but on an undulating pattern (increase in next month, followed by decrease in next-to-next month, again followed by an increase, so on).
So we can roughly estimate the Oct 2015 sales to decrease to touch 49 or 50 (Since Sept 2015 sales had increased from previous year). Nov 2015 sales is expected to increase again, touching 56 or 57. Dec 2015 sales may likely increase to touch 60 or 61 (Prior pattern shows moderate sales increase in Dec). Jan 2016 sales will remain almost the same, with a decrease/increase of 1 or 2.
The range of forecasted values is between 45 to 61.
NOTE: This is a very rough, non-technical and completely visual estimate which can be statistically very incorrect.