Political party affiliation is believed to be a very strong indicator of how vot
ID: 3050889 • Letter: P
Question
Political party affiliation is believed to be a very strong indicator of how voters will vote in Presidential Elections. You are interested in determining if voter party loyalty has changed since 1992. During the 1992 election, the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted for George H. W. Bush was 0.838. During the 2012 election, in a survey of 320 Republican voters, 242 indicated that they had voted for Mitt Romney. The 99% confidence interval for this proportion is ( 0.6944 , 0.8181 ). What is the best conclusion you can make from this information that is listed below?
1) The confidence interval does not provide enough information to form a conclusion.
2) The proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted for their party candidate in 2012 who changed from 0.838 is 99%.
3) We can claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is larger than 0.838.
4) We can not claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate differs from 0.838.
5) We can conclude that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is smaller than 0.838.
Explanation / Answer
We can see that the range of CI is not including value 0.838. So as per CI population proportion will be obviously smaller than 0.838.
So answer is
5) We can conclude that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is smaller than 0.838