Political party affiliation is believed to be a very strong indicator of how vot
ID: 3223246 • Letter: P
Question
Political party affiliation is believed to be a very strong indicator of how voters will vote in Presidential Elections. You are interested in determining if voter party loyalty has changed since 1992. During the 1992 election, the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted for George H. W. Bush was 0.868. During the 2012 election, in a survey of 206 Republican voters, 155 indicated that they had voted for Mitt Romney. The 95% confidence interval for this proportion is (0.6935, 0.8114).
i) What is the best conclusion you can make from this information?
ii) What if the interval is (0.82, 0.89)?
iii) What if the interval is (0.87, 0.97)?
A) We can not conclude that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate differs from 0.868.
B) We can claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is larger than 0.868.
C) We can claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is smaller than 0.868.
Explanation / Answer
(i) C) We can claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is smaller than 0.868.
(ii)A) We can not conclude that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate differs from 0.868.
(iii) B) We can claim that the proportion of self-proclaimed Republicans who voted in the 2012 election for their party candidate is larger than 0.868.