Consider the monthly U.S unemployment rate from January 1948 to March 2009 in th

Question

Consider the monthly U.S unemployment rate from January 1948 to March 2009 in the file m-unrate.txt. This data file can be found in the below link, or you many google the m-unrate.txt.

https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ruey.tsay/teaching/bs41202/sp2009/m-unrate.txt

The data are seasonally adjusted and obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Build a time series model for the series and use the model to forecast the unemployment rate for the April, May, June, and July of 2009. In addition, does the fitted model imply the existence of business cycles? Why? ( Note that there are more than one model fits the data well. You only need an adequate model.) Please provide SAS code to get the plots and then answer if it implies the existence of business cycles or not.

Explanation / Answer

could not able to find the data file.

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