For the following Time estimates: Fill in the Expected Time and the Variances th

Question

For the following Time estimates: Fill in the Expected Time and the Variances that have been left blank: The standard deviation of the Critical Path, if this path consists of Activities A, H, G. and I is If the expected completion time for a given Critical Path is 47 days, with a standard deviation of 4 days. The probability of completing the project within 51 days is the probability of completing the project within 53 days is How many days should be allocated for a 99.942% probability of completing the project?

Explanation / Answer

Q.2 (a) Data is correctedly filled in the blank spaces

(b) Summation of variances of A, H, G and I= 1 + 0.44 +0.44 + 1.36 = 3.24

standerd deviation = 1.8

Q.3 is specifically askedhere so i am answering it here

Expected Critical time = 47 days and standered deviation = 4days

(a) P( X <= 51 ; 47; 4) so Z -value = 51- 47 / 4 = 1

so for Z value = 1 relative probabilbility from Z table = 0.8413

so P( X <= 51 ; 47; 4) = 0.8413; Here you have written 68% but that is the probabilty of P ( 43 < =X<=51; 47; 4) for vales mean +- sigma

(b) P ( X< = 53; 47; 4) here z value = 1.5

so P ( X< = 53; 47; 4) = 0.9332

(c) given is P (x < =X; 47;4) = 0.99942

so z value for that probability from Z table = 3.262

so number of days given = 47 + 3.262 * 4 = 60 days

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