Consider the most recent presidential election. Many polls are conducted before,

Question

Consider the most recent presidential election. Many polls are conducted before, and during, election day. The poll results are reported along with a "margin of error." a. How does the margin of error relate to what you know about confidence intervals? b. Many people predicted a Clinton victory based on the poll results, even considering the margin of error. Read about the polls online. Given your understanding of the polls, margin of error, and confidence intervals, why do you think so many people made an incorrect prediction?

Explanation / Answer

Question 5

Part a

The margin of error is the possibility of the variation of the results for the point estimates or in general it is the average variability of the opinions. Statistically, the margin of error is the interval half width. In the survey analysis, the intervals are given instead of point estimates because the variation in the point estimate is explained better by using the confidence interval.

Part b

Many people predicted that the Clinton victory based on the poll results even considering the margin of error. People made this prediction correctly because the midpoint of the confidence interval or point estimate or median of the confidence interval for the Clinton is greater than the point estimates of the other candidates in the election. So, although the margin of error is given in the survey, people infer based on the point estimates or the middle point of the confidence intervals.

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