Part A answer options (click to select): trend-adjusted naive, season-adjusted n
ID: 416923 • Letter: P
Question
Part A answer options (click to select): trend-adjusted naive, season-adjusted naive, basic naive
Part B answer options (click to select): demand, sales
A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below: Day Cupcakes 51 67 31 34 70 42 o un 38 36 Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns 25 52 24 53 26 52 26 59 31 51 32 34 32 35 51 36 59 36 51 37 59 39 40 56 42 57 34 39 10 11 12 13 74 39 14 51 15 a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method. Blueberry Muffin : The ( (Click to select) Cinnamon Buns : The ( (Click to select) Cupcakes : The ( (Click to select) # forecast is 3) forecast is A forecast is b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply? The use of sales data instead of demand implies that ( (Click to select) a adequately reflect ( (Click to select) A. We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.Explanation / Answer
a) Using Naive method, forecast is calculated by the formula, Ft = St-1 , where Ft is the Forecast for day (t) and St-1 is the Actual sales of day (t-1)
Forecast for day 16 is following
Blueberry Muffin : The basic naive forecast is 56
Cinnamon Buns : The basic naive forecast is 42
Cupcakes : The basic naive forecast is 32
b) The use of sales data instead of demand implies that sales adequately reflect demand. We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.