Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Using the n
ID: 3159990 • Letter: P
Question
Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
Mean absolute percentage error. Round your answer to two decimal places.
What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
Explanation / Answer
Mean absolute error = 3.4
Mean squared error = 14.6
Mean absolute percentage error = 22.77
Considering simple moving averge, forecast for week 7 is average of 18,14,....,15
=90/6 = 15
Week Value Forecast Absolute Error Squared Error Absolute Percentage Error 1 18 2 14 18 4 16 22.22 3 15 14 1 1 6.67 4 11 15 4 16 36.36 5 17 11 6 36 35.29 6 15 17 2 4 13.33 7 15 Sum 17 73 113.87