Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Using the n

Question

Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic)

Consider the following time series data.

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal place.

Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal place.

Mean absolute percentage error. Round your answer to two decimal places.

What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 16 10 17 14

Explanation / Answer

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Week Value Forecast Error Absolute Error Squared error Percentage error Percentage error Absolute percentage error 1 18 2 12 18 -6 6 36 (6/12)*100 -50 50 3 16 12 4 4 16 (4/16)*100 25 25 4 10 16 -6 6 36 (6/10)*100 -60 60 5 17 10 7 7 49 (7/17)*100 41.18 41.18 6 14 17 -3 3 9 (3/14)*100 -21.43 21.43 Total   26 146 -65.25 197.61 Mean absolute error =26/5 Mean absolute error =5.2 Mean squared error=146/5 Mean squared error=29.2 Mean absolute percentage error =197.61/6 Mean absolute percentage error= 39.52 the forecast for week 7 =14

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